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# 2027 ERRA Forecasts: SCE Procurement Costs Fall, Yet Bills Edge Higher; PG&E Projects 5.7% Bundled Increase
- URL: https://www.calregulatory.com/2027-erra-forecasts-sce-procurement-costs-fall-yet-bills-edge-higher-pg-e-projects-5-7-bundled-increase/
- Published: 2026-05-20T13:30:56.000Z
- Updated: 2026-05-20T13:44:23.000Z
- Author: MC
- Tags: PCIA, R.25-02-005, ERRA Forecast, Voluntary Allocation and Market Offer, Central Procurement Entity

PG&E and SCE filed their 2027 Energy Resource Recovery Account Forecast applications with the CPUC on May 15\. Neither filing is final. October updates will incorporate updated forecast assumptions, year-end balancing account data, and intervening Commission decisions.

A major variable is the CPUC's pending **September 17** decision in the ERRA/PCIA Reform docket ([R.25-02-005](https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M557/K860/557860748.PDF?ref=calregulatory.com)), which asks whether pre-2019 banked Renewable Energy Credits should carry a value greater than zero when used for bundled service customer compliance under the [Power Charge Indifference Adjustment](https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/electrical-energy/electric-power-procurement/power-charge-indifference-adjustment?ref=calregulatory.com). That decision will flow directly into the fall updates.

### PG&E's 2027 ERRA Forecast

PG&E [requests a **$4.409 billion**](https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M606/K868/606868011.PDF?ref=calregulatory.com) total procurement-related revenue requirement for 2027\. Bundled customers are forecast to see rates rise **5.7%**, from 33.8 cents/kWh to **35.7 cents/kWh**. Direct Access and Community Choice Aggregation customers move in the opposite direction, with average rates forecast to decline **7.3%**, from 23.4 cents/kWh to **21.7 cents/kWh**. The primary driver is a declining PCIA obligation; DA and CCA customers pay cost-responsibility surcharges rather than bundled energy procurement costs, and the PCIA component is forecast lower. PG&E projects a **$530 million** net greenhouse gas revenue return, producing a **$41.74** semiannual [California Climate Credit](https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/climatecredit?ref=calregulatory.com).

Below are PG&E's illustrative rates.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/36/77/3677b301-4c92-43b7-8e2f-c7265d6b0b59/content/images/2026/05/rates1.png)

### SCE's 2027 ERRA Forecast

SCE [requests **$4.350 billion**](https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M606/K860/606860943.PDF?ref=calregulatory.com), approximately **$360.7 million** below the revenue requirement reflected in current rates, yet customer bills will still rise. SCE acknowledges that this outcome appears counterintuitive. The disconnect between a lower procurement-related revenue requirement and higher rates stems from how costs are allocated in supporting rate calculations. Edison forecasts an overall **1.8%** rate increase, including **1.2%** for residential customers. A typical non-CARE residential customer using 500 kWh per month would see a monthly bill rise from $187.56 to **$189.76**, excluding the semiannual California Climate Credit. SCE's greenhouse gas revenue return totals approximately **$616.7 million**, producing a projected **$54** semiannual Climate Credit.

Below are SCE's illustrative rates.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/36/77/3677b301-4c92-43b7-8e2f-c7265d6b0b59/content/images/2026/05/rates2.png)

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Mid-Term Reliability procurement, Central Procurement Entity local RA obligations, Voluntary Allocation and Market Offer implementation, greenhouse gas crediting, tree-mortality charges, and [BioMAT](https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/electrical-energy/electric-power-procurement/rps/rps-procurement-programs/rps-sb-1122-biomat?ref=calregulatory.com) all continue moving through the annual ERRA framework. What began as an electric procurement proceeding increasingly functions as a recovery vehicle for policy-era obligations adopted in other dockets. For large customers, ESPs, and PCIA-sensitive interests, cost-allocation vigilance remains warranted

**INSTANT ANALYSIS:** The October updates matter more than the May applications. Commodity prices, RA costs, balancing account swings, and the REC-valuation decision in R.25-02-005 all remain capable of moving the numbers before **January 1** implementation.